Langche Zeng

Department of Political Science
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0521
E-mail: [email-masked]

Education
Ph.D. (Social Science) 1993, California
Institute of Technology.

M.S. (Social Science) 1990, California Institute of Technology.

M.A. (Economics and Statistics) 1985, Sichuan Institute of
Finance and Economics, Chengdu, PRC.

B.S. (Applied Mathematics) 1982, Chengdu University of Science
and Technology. Chengdu, PRC.

Academic Positions
University of California, San
Diego. Department of Political Science. Professor, July 2005 -.

The George Washington University. Department of Political
Science. Associate Professor, Sept. 1999 - June 2005. Assistant
professor, Sept. 1995 - August 1999.

The George Washington University, Institute of Public Policy.
Policy Research Scholar, 2001-2002; Research Affiliate, 2003-2005.

The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Mathematical
Sciences. Fellow by Courtesy, 2001-2002.

Harvard University. Center for Basic Research in the Social
Sciences (CBRSS) Research Associate, Sept 2000-August 2001.

Harvard University, Department of Government/CBRSS, Visiting
Scholar, January 1998-August 2000.

University of Oregon. Department of Political Science and
Institute of Cognitive and Decision Sciences, Assistant Professor,
Sept. 1993 - June 1995.

Carnegie-Mellon University. Graduate School of Industrial
Administration, Postdoctoral Fellow, Sept. 1992 - June 1993.

Grants/Awards/Honors
National Science Foundation
grant SES-0318275, Improving Prediction and Causal Inference with
Graphical Methods and Models, Sept. 2003-June 2005.

National Science Foundation grant SBR-9753126, POWRE: Nonlinear
Modeling for Political Data Analysis, January 1 1998-August 31 1999.

The Gosnell Prize for Best Work in Political Methodology, with
Nathaniel Beck and Gary King, 1999.

Research Fellowship, Center for Basic Research in the Social
Sciences, Harvard University, 2000-2001.

Policy Research Scholar Award, George Washington University
Institute of Public Policy, 2001-2002.

Faculty Research Award, University of Oregon, 1994.

John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Dissertation Fellowship,
Caltech, 1990-92.

Li Ming Fellowship, Caltech, 1991-92.

Beta Gamma Sigma (National Honor Society in Business and
Management), 1988.

Research Excellence Award, Statistics Society, Sichuan, China,
October 1986.

Publications
When Can History be Our Guide? The
Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference, with Gary King.
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming.

Detecting Model Dependence in Statistical Inference: A Response.
with Gary King. International Studies Quarterly,
forthcoming.

The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals. With Gary King.
Political Analysis, Vol. 14, No. 2 (2006): Pp. 131-159.

WhatIf: Software for Evaluating Counterfactuals. With Heather
Stoll and GaryKing. Journal of Statistical Software,, Vol.
15, Issue 4.   Abstract published in Journal of
Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 15 , No. 1 (March
2006): P. 264.

Theory and Evidence in International Conflict, with Neal Beck and
Gary King. American Political Science Review, Vol. 98, No.
2 (May, 2004), pp.379-389.

ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression, with Michael Tomz and
Gary King. Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 8 (2),
2003.

Inference in Case-Control Studies. with Gary King. in S. C. Chow,
ed., Encyclopedia of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 2nd
Edition, New York: Marcel Dekker, 2003. pp.1-13.

Estimating Risk and Rate Levels, Ratios, and Differences in
Case-Control Studies, with Gary King. Statistics in
Medicine, vol. 21 (10), May 2002.

Improving Forecasts of State Failure, with Gary King. World
Politics, vol. 53 (4), pp. 623-658, July 2001.

Explaining Rare Events in International Relations, with Gary
King. International Organization, vol. 55 (3), pp. 693-715,
2001.

Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data, with Gary King.
Political Analysis, vol. 9 (2), pp. 137-163, 2001.

A Heteroscedastic GEV Model, Sociological Methods and
Research, vol. 29 (1), pp.118-144, August 2000.

Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A
Conjecture, with Nathaniel Beck and Gary King, American
Political Science Review, vol. 94 (1), pp. 1-15, March 2000.

Analyzing Censored and Sample-Selected Data with Tobit and Heckit
Models, with Lee Sigelman, Political Analysis, vol. 8 (2),
Spring 2000.

Neural Network Models for Political Analysis, in Diana Richards
(ed.) Political Complexity: Nonlinear Models of Politics.
University of Michigan Press, 2000, pp. 239-268.

Classification and Prediction with Neural Network Models,
Sociological Methods and Research. vol. 27 (4), pp.
499-524, May 1999.

Rational Voters and Strategic Voting: Evidence from the 1968,
1980, and 1992 Elections, with Peter Ordeshook. Journal of
Theoretical Politics, vol.9, April 1997.

Individual Experience and the Fragmentation of Societies, with
John Orbell and Matt Mulford. American Sociological Review,
vol.61 (6), pp. 1018-1032, Dec. 1996.

Some Properties of Hare Voting With Strategic Voters, with P.C.
Ordeshook. Public Choice, vol. 78, pp. 87-101, January
1994.

An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947-1987, with
D.R. Kiewiet. American Political Science Review, vol. 87,
pp. 928-941, December 1993.

Statistical Software
WhatIf: Software for evaluating
counterfactuals. with Heather Stoll and Gary King
(http://gking.harvard.edu/whatif/)

Relogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression, with Gary King (Gauss
version, http://gking.harvard.edu/files/relogitg.zip) and Mike Tomz
and Gary King (Stata version,
http://gking.harvard.edu/files/relogit.zip); Gauss code for
inference from density sampling case-control data in Cox models,
with Gary King (http://gking.harvard.edu/files/relogitg.zip).

Gauss code for neural networks. Contributed to the Gauss Source
Code Archives
(http://gurukul.ucc.american.edu/econ/gaussres/optimize/nnet.src).

Gauss code for heteroscedastic logit models. Contributed to the
Gauss Source Code Archives
(http://gurukul.ucc.american.edu/econ/gaussres/qchoice/hlogit.src)

Conference Papers/Invited Talks
Graphical Models,
Social Network Analysis, and Structural Modeling. Invited talk,
George Washington University Institute of Public Policy Methods
Workshop, March 2004.

Improving Prediction and Causal Inference in Empirical Political
Science. Invited talk, Department of Political Science, University
of California, San Diego. February, 2004; Department of Political
Science, Penn State University, December 2004.

Improving Prediction and Causal Inference with Graphical Methods
and Models. APSA Annual Meeting, August 2003, Philadelphia.

Quantitative Political Methodology. Invited talk. Department of
Mathematical Sciences, Johns Hopkins University. April, 2002.

Prediction and Classification with Neural Network Models. Invited
talk, Department of Economics, George Washington University. April
2001.

How factual is Your Counterfactual? with Gary King, the APSA
Methodology Society Summer meeting, Emory University, Atlanta, GA,
July 2001.

Estimating Risk and Rate Levels, Ratios, and Differences in
Case-Control Studies, with Gary King. the APSA Annual Meeting, San
Fracisco, 2001.

Estimating Causal Effects, with Gary King, the MPSA annual
meeting, Chicago, 2001.

Forecasting State Failure, with Gary King, the MPSA annual
meeting, Chicago, 2000 and the Political Methodology Society Summer
Meeting, UCLA, 2000.

Inference in Case-Control Studies with Limited Auxiliary
Information, with Gary King, the Political Methodology Society
Summer Meeting, Texas A & M, 1999.

Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data, With Gary King, the
Political Methodology Society Summer Meeting, Texas A & M, 1999
and the APSA Annual meeting, Atlanta 1999.

Registration, Turnout and Voting Behavior at the Community Level:
Evidence from the ROAD Data, the APSA annual meeting (Methods
panel), September 1998, Boston.

The Problem with Quantitative Studies of International Conflict,
with Neal Beck and Gary King, the Political Methodology Society
Annual Meeting, July 1998, UC San Diego.

Analyzing Censored and Sample-Selected Data: Tobit, Heckit, and
Neural Network Models, with Lee Sigelman, MPSA annual meeting
(Methods panel), 1998.

Neural Network Models and Political Data Analysis, MPSA annual
meeting (Methods panel), 1996.

Classification and Prediction with Neural Network Models, APSA
annual meeting (Methods panel), 1996.

A Heteroscedastic GEV Model, MPSA annual meeting (Methods panel),
1993.

An Analysis of Congressional Career Decisions, 1947-1987, with
D.R. Kiewiet, MPSA annual meeting (Legislative Politics Panel),
1992.

Courses Taught
University of California, San Diego
PS 30 (Political Inquiry)
PS 170A (Introductory Statistics
for Political Science and Public Policy)
PS 271B (Advanced
Quantitative Methods) George Washington University:
PSc 101 (Scope and Methods of Political Science), PSc 192
(Pro-seminar on Decision Making),
PSc 201 (Quantitative Methods
I: Introduction to Statistics),
PSc 202, version 1 (Quantitative
Methods II: Introduction to Econometrics),
PSc 202, version 2
(Quantitative Methods II: Modern Regression Analysis and Related
Methods),
Psc 285, version 1 (Topics in Empirical Analysis:
Neural Network Models),
Psc 285, version 2 (Topics in Empirical
Analysis: Maximum Likelihood Methods and Models).
Psc 285,
version 3 (Introduction to Formal Theory in Political Science:
Decision theory, Game theory, Social choice theory, and
Computational modeling.)
Psc 297 and 397 (Directed Reading).
Harvard University:
Gov2001 (Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology). Fall
1998. With Gary King. (Taught topics on neural networks.)
University of Oregon:
Quantitative Methods I (Introduction to Statistics),

Quantitative Methods II (Introduction to Econometric Analysis),

Quantitative Methods III (Research Seminar in Empirical
Analysis),
Decision Making II (Decision theory, Game theory,
Social choice theory).

Professional Activities and Service
Editorial board
member:
American Political Science Review, 2001-
International
Studies Quarterly, 2004-
Political Analysis, 2006-

Program Committee Member (Chair, Political Methodology Division),
2006 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.

R. H. Durr Award Committee (for the best paper applying
quantitative methods to a substantive problem presented at the MPSA
conference), 2004.

Chair, Program Committee, Political Methodology Society Annual
Meeting, Texas A&M University, 1999.

Referee for:
National Science Foundation:
Methodology, Measurement, and Statistics (MMS) Program

Political Science Program
Law and Political Science Program
American Political Science Review
American Journal of
Political Science
Political Analysis
Sociological Methods
and Research
World Politics
International Organization

International Studies Quarterly
Journal of Conflict
Resolution
Journal of Peace Research
Conflict Management and
Peace Science
Journal of Theoretical Politics
Legislative
Studies Quarterly
Journal of Politics
Political Behavior

International Journal of Forecasting
IEEE Transactions on
Systems, Man and Cybernetics
Director of Visiting
Scholars, Department of Political Science, UCSD, 2006--

Faculty Search Committee, Department of Political Science and
IR/PS, UCSD, 2006

Undergraduate Committee, Department of Political Science, UCSD,
2005--2006.

Graduate Admission and Award Committee, Department of Political
Science, GWU, 2004.

Methodology Field Coordinator, 1995---2004, Department of
Political Science, GWU.

Personnel Committee, 1994-1995. Department of Political Science,
University of Oregon.

Admission and Award Committee, 1993-1994. Department of Political
Science, University of Oregon.

Executive Committee, 1994-1995. Institute of Cognitive and
Decision Sciences, University of Oregon.

Faculty Search Committee, 1993-1994. Institute of Cognitive and
Decision Sciences, University of Oregon.

Personal Information
Born December 24, 1962 in
Sichuan, China. US citizen.

Married to Gert Cauwenberghs, with daughter Kalyani and son
Ginkgo.